2:57 p.m. | Updated |
On Sunday I posted a 140-character Twitter item containing four links that sketch humanity?s urban pollution challenges and opportunities over the last 60 years. (Link shortening is one of many reasons 140 characters can matter). Here it is:
It?s worth expanding on this haiku a bit to be sure the meaning is clear:
London, 1952. The Guardian package linked above marked the 60th anniversary of London?s terrible killer smog. It?s a reminder that much of what we in the West see as shockingly aberrant in today?s industrializing countries and fast-growing cities was our norm a short two generations ago. The same is true for rivers. As I wrote last year, while Nairobi has foaming floods of pollution now, the Hudson, which is now swimmable, had shores sticky with adhesive and shimmering with automotive paint a few decades ago. Prosperity leads to rising public environmental concern and the wherewithal for governments to change rules and practices.
Beijing, 2013. The extreme pulse of smog this month was wonderfully encapsulated in Ed Wong?s weekend story, titled ?On Scale of 0 to 500, Beijing?s Air Quality Tops ?Crazy Bad? at 755.? The conditions in the last few days were ?beyond index? in the same way that Australia?s heat required new colors to be added to government forecast temperature charts.
Gas shift. Last year, I asked this question: ?Can China Follow U.S. Shift from Coal to Gas?? The country has vast reserves of shale gas but lacks expertise and experience in hydraulic fracturing, also called fracking, the innovative mix of technologies that is poised to transform America?s energy prospects (if drilling is done with communities and the environment in mind). A prompt shift from coal to natural gas in China ? which would have to involve substantial collaboration with the United States ? could potentially be a big near-term step toward stopping growth in greenhouse-gas emissions, and of course clearing the air in crowded, coal-dependent cities. [2:52 p.m. | Insert | Kevin Bullis has a recent piece in Technology Review exploring technical and geological hurdles to large-scale gas development in China.]
The third link in my Twitter item is to a fascinating Financial Times report by Leslie Hook that spells out how, at least in Beijing, such a transition is already under way. Here?s an excerpt:
Every night an old coal train chugs in to central Beijing to deliver its load to the Guohua power plant, one of the city?s oldest power stations now surrounded by glitzy malls and towering apartment blocks. Soon, the trains will no longer be running. In a multibillion dollar effort to reduce air pollution, Beijing is shutting down its coal-fired plants and replacing them with natural gas-fuelled power stations by the end of next year?.
Over the past year, Beijing has unveiled ambitious plans to replace its coal-fired power plants, run more cars and buses on natural gas, clamp down on construction site dust and raise standards for vehicle emissions. If all goes to plan, the capital?s central urban areas will be completely coal-free by 2015. ?Beijing has consistently been ahead of the country and it is pretty clear that?.?.?.?some of the things they do get taken as a national model,? says Deborah Seligsohn, a senior adviser at the World Resources Institute in Beijing. ?Within the next five years things are going to be visibly better.?
The article notes that the shift to gas, so far, is restricted to the city, and some of the pollution from coal combustion will simply be generated elsewhere as plants outside the city pollute to supply electricity to the center of power. But I?ll almost guarantee this can spread well beyond the capital.
Climate win? It?s clear to me that much can be gained, environmentally and economically (in part through reducing the huge health cost of urban pollution), through collaboration between the United States and China, as well as other countries in Asia with similar issues and opportunities. If China can build its capacity to extract natural gas without substantial emissions to the air (and with careful standards for drilling and water pollution ? which is hardly a given!), the resulting shift away from coal (and, through natural gas vehicles, oil) has to be seen as a boon all around.
Wearing my academic hat, I?m currently helping* the new Center for Energy Governance and Security at?Korea?s Hanyang University develop partnerships here to examine how to foster responsible development of shale gas in China as a near-term path away from coal. (Korea, like most industrial powerhouses, is eager for access to gas; the center held a Seoul conference with Chinese participants last year.)
Over the weekend,?Trevor Houser, an analyst of global disruptive trendsand former senior State Department adviser on energy and climate, noted several initiatives that are already under way. These include?the U.S.-China Oil and Gas Industry Forum?and?a?U.S.-China initiative on shale gas that he negotiated while at the State Department, which has broadened into the?Unconventional Gas Technical Engagement Program.
He added: ?These two cover a fair amount of ground but there is always more work to be done.?
Indeed there is. Much has been learned here as the shale-gas boom has unfolded ? troubles and all. And there?s a great opportunity now to see that those lessons don?t have to be re-learned elsewhere. Transferring knowledge efficiently to where it?s needed is all part of what I call ?Knowosphere.?
[*?I'm doing this pro bono.]
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